Raw material market remains sluggish, prebaked anode market is stable but under pressure [SMM Weekly Review of Prebaked Anode]

SMM News on June 12:

Raw Material Side: In the petroleum coke market, the shipment performance of refineries remained generally average during the week, with petroleum coke prices showing an overall weak and stable trend. Specifically, this week, the prices of petroleum coke under CNOOC were mainly on a downward trend, with declines ranging from 30 to 100 yuan/mt. The current price range is 3,170-3,200 yuan/mt. Binzhou Petrochemical is still under maintenance and has not provided a quote, while the port quote for Huizhou coke has dropped by 50 yuan/mt. In the northeast region under PetroChina, refinery shipments were stable during the week, and petroleum coke prices transitioned smoothly, with the current price range at 3,350-3,700 yuan/mt. It was also learned that Dagang Petrochemical's petroleum coke price through bidding declined slightly by 50 yuan/mt during the week. For Sinopec, the trading of petroleum coke at its refineries was generally average, and prices at some refineries increased slightly during the week, with increases concentrated within 50 yuan/mt. Among local refineries, shipments were relatively stable, and petroleum coke prices fluctuated, with daily adjustments mostly within 100 yuan. Currently, downstream enterprises are still mainly restocking based on immediate needs, with no significant growth in overall demand. It is expected that petroleum coke prices will maintain a generally stable with slight fall trend in the short term. According to SMM data, the average price of petroleum coke at local refineries is approximately 2,230 yuan/mt, down about 1.13% MoM. In the coal tar pitch market, prices declined this week. As of Thursday, the average price of coal tar pitch was 3,748 yuan/mt, down 6.21% MoM. Overall, the cost side of prebaked anodes continues to loosen.

From the supply perspective, prebaked anode enterprises continue to adopt a "produce based on sales" strategy. This week, the industry's operating rate remained stable, with no significant fluctuations in production schedules. Market supply maintained a dynamic balance, with no significant increases or decreases. In terms of demand, with the southward shift of aluminum capacity in Shandong and regional adjustments in electrolytic aluminum capacity, overall capacity is operating smoothly.

Brief Commentary: This week, the raw material market for prebaked anodes performed weakly, with cost support continuing to weaken. According to SMM data, as of June 12, the cost of prebaked anodes in China was approximately 4,631 yuan/mt, down 0.74% MoM. The decline in raw material prices has significantly improved corporate profitability, with the industry's real-time profit expanding to over 300 yuan/mt. Currently, the industry's operating rate remains high, and downstream demand is stable. In the short term, prebaked anode prices will remain stable. However, due to the short-term difficulty in changing the weak trend in the raw material market, it is expected that prebaked anode prices will lack upward momentum next month. Continuous attention should be paid to changes in supply and demand and price trends in the industry chain.

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